APICS - The Performance Advantage

December 1996 € Volume 6 € Number 12

SmartForecasts for Windows

Forecasting Software for P&IC Professionals

By Pierre Belhumeur

Forecasting has long been considered an exercise in futility. As one manager put it, forecasting is the act of predicting the future with the finest of precision and the grossest of errors. Another manager characterized all forecasts as sharing two major traits: They are always wrong and they always change.

However, forecasting's reputation is on the upswing. Many managers and users now recognize that forecasting is important, useful and insightful, and that forecast accuracy is improving -- the overall reduction in lead times has reduced significantly the bounds for error. Further, new techniques and procedures have been developed that allow the user to test various alternative competing procedures simultaneously. These new procedures have given the user the ability to incorporate new information such as the planned introduction of a promotional campaign or knowledge that a certain range of data was not representative of general developments (and should be excluded from the forecasting process). These new procedures also help users identify problem data. Finally, faster microcomputers and improved interfaces have resulted in an operating environment where results can be generated faster and easier.

In this month's article, we focus on Smart Software's SmartForecasts for Windows. This is a true 32-bit product that offers an interesting combination of power and speed, as well as a comprehensive approach to forecasting in an easy to use package. This month's review is written by Pierre Belhumeur, Labatt's Breweries of Canada.

Should any reader need to contact me, please note my new address, telephone and fax numbers:
Steven A. Melnyk, Room N327 NBC, Department of Marketing and Supply Chain Management, The Eli Broad Graduate School of Management, Michigan State University [email protected]