August 1997, Volume 3, No. 8 Windows NT Gaining on UNIX

"Is UNIX dead?" is a question on the lips of many computer industry pundits these days, and now Advanced Manufacturing Research (AMR) (Boston, Mass.; http://www.advmfg.com) has gotten into the act. As in just about every other industry you can think of that relies on industrial-strength networked PCs, Windows NT is being proposed as the inheritor to UNIX's once-dominant position in the plant operations market. In its recently published Plant Operations Software Market Report, 1996 - 2001, AMR predicts that the plant operations software market will see significant growth in the next five years. "The market saw a 26% growth spurt in 1996," noted Bill Swanton, AMR's director of plant operations research. "We expect growth to flatten slightly to 25% this year, but it will pick up again with solid growth over the next three years." The expansion of the plant operations software market coincides with manufacturers' increasing focus on technological efficiency. This shift is reflected in the market's overall transition to lower-cost software automation and has paved the way for the emergence of Windows NT. "The NT operating system is better equipped to manage the market's changing software needs," explained Swanton. "Last year, UNIX dominated with a 28% market share, while NT trailed at 20%. However, by the year 2001, Windows NT will surpass UNIX in market share and will clearly emerge as the operating system of choice." As manufacturers expand their focus on technological efficiency and productivity, it is not surprising that client/server technologies dominate new application software sales. According to AMR, license revenue shares for client/server applications in 1996 totaled $572 million, a market share of 80%. Host-based applications accounted for the remaining 20%. Although such applications are becoming more obsolete, license revenues in 1996 still generated $142 million. In such a fast-moving and constantly changing market, it can be difficult for manufacturers to keep their software up-to-date. Swanton believes that most of the plant operations software applications are affected by rapid technological changes. "Vendors often have to make crucial technological decisions a long time before the market has decided whether these technologies are in fact winners or losers," he said.

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