Will China Replace U.S. as Top Manufacturer?

What country is likely to displace the U.S. as the dominant global manufacturer in the next century? Probably China, according to John Kettle, editor of The FutureLetter. Despite being dormant for well over a century, China's growth as a manufacturing nation over the past quarter-century has transformed it from a non-player to a country responsible for a 10% share of the world manufacturing market.

The U.S. still "looks to have a lot of life left in it," Kettle noted, pointing out further that his prediction that China's ascendance will take another 40 years or so to reach fruition is based on historical cycles of roughly 75 years. If current trends hold into the 21st Century, an "East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere" made up of China, Japan and South Korea will be the dominant player in global manufacturing.

(FutureLetter, May 1, 1995) IM

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